Precipitation outlook for April 2015

Precipitation outlook for April 2015

  • Surpluses in Northern India/Pakistan. There has already been flooding in Jammu & Kashmir due to excess rains in March. This suggests a good probability of excess rains in April.
  • Continued deficits for the Colorado River Basin.
  • Some potential drought relief in Southern Brazil.

Precipitation outlook for April 2015 based on an ensemble of 28 NOAA CFSv2 seasonal forecasts issued the last week of March 2015. Blues indicate more precipitation than usual, reds less precipitation than usual. Units are in “return period” (the inverse of the probability of seeing an anomaly of that magnitude or worse).

This blog post presents results from our "WSIM Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts" report issued on April 2, 2015. This report current includes forecasts for April 2015 through December 2015 based on NOAA's CFSv2 forecasts issued March 25-31, 2015.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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