WATCHING: United States, Central America and Northern South America, Europe, Coastal West Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
This blogpost presents a global overview of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the coming months. It is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 12 June 2015, a proprietary report on global water anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation through May 2015 and an ensemble of forecasts issued the last week of May 2015.
The map identifies significant water anomalies for the one year period beginning in March 2015 and running through February 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data. WSIM expresses anomalies in terms of return period. Return period describes how rare the surpluses (increasing intensity of blue) or deficits (increasing intensity of red) are relative to expectations. For example, an anomaly with a return period of 10 years would be expected to occur once every 10 years on average, based on historical distributions. Anomaly levels correspond to return periods: abnormal=3-5 years, moderate=5-10 years, severe=10-20 years, extreme 20-40 years, and exceptional=greater than 40 years.
NOTE: More detailed posts on each of the following regions will be available soon.
United States: Exceptional water deficit conditions are forecast to persist in California and intensify in the Pacific Northwest. Severe to extreme deficits are also forecast for portions of the US Northeast. Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for the Central/Southern US.
Central America and Northern South America: Widespread extreme deficit conditions are forecast to emerge and intensify throughout Central America and Northern South America.
Europe: Moderate to extreme water deficits are forecast for much of Europe, with the most intense deficits forecast for Portugal, Belarus, and Ukraine. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Scotland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, and parts of Turkey.
Coastal West Africa: Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist and intensify in a swath of countries in coastal West Africa from Côte D'Ivoire to the Congo. Further north, deficits in Mauritania are forecast to persist.
South Asia: Most of India is forecast to experience mild to extreme water deficits, particularly in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Orissa. These deficits follow a pattern similar to last year's monsoon season.
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits in Southeast Asia are forecast to intensify to exceptional levels particularly in Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia. Similarly, exceptional deficits are forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua. Deficits are also forecast for the Philippines and additional eastern Indonesian provinces.
- November 2024 4
- October 2024 13
- September 2024 13
- August 2024 13
- July 2024 13
- June 2024 13
- May 2024 13
- April 2024 14
- March 2024 13
- February 2024 13
- January 2024 13
- December 2023 15
- November 2023 12
- October 2023 18
- September 2023 13
- August 2023 13
- July 2023 11
- June 2023 15
- May 2023 14
- April 2023 17
- March 2023 15
- February 2023 9
- January 2023 14
- December 2022 14
- November 2022 14
- October 2022 14
- September 2022 14
- August 2022 14
- July 2022 14
- June 2022 14
- May 2022 14
- April 2022 14
- March 2022 14
- February 2022 14
- January 2022 14
- December 2021 14
- November 2021 14
- October 2021 14
- September 2021 15
- August 2021 14
- July 2021 14
- June 2021 14
- May 2021 14
- April 2021 14
- March 2021 14
- February 2021 14
- January 2021 14
- December 2020 14
- November 2020 14
- October 2020 14
- September 2020 14
- August 2020 14
- July 2020 14
- June 2020 14
- May 2020 14
- April 2020 14
- March 2020 14
- February 2020 14
- January 2020 14
- December 2019 1
- November 2019 14
- October 2019 14
- September 2019 14
- August 2019 14
- July 2019 14
- June 2019 14
- May 2019 16
- April 2019 14
- March 2019 17
- February 2019 25
- January 2019 2
- December 2018 14
- November 2018 14
- October 2018 14
- September 2018 14
- August 2018 14
- July 2018 14
- June 2018 14
- May 2018 14
- April 2018 14
- March 2018 14
- February 2018 14
- January 2018 15
- December 2017 21
- November 2017 8
- October 2017 15
- September 2017 14
- August 2017 14
- July 2017 14
- June 2017 14
- May 2017 14
- April 2017 14
- March 2017 15
- February 2017 15
- January 2017 14
- December 2016 18
- November 2016 10
- October 2016 14
- September 2016 14
- August 2016 15
- July 2016 14
- June 2016 14
- May 2016 15
- April 2016 14
- March 2016 15
- February 2016 14
- January 2016 14
- December 2015 14
- November 2015 14
- October 2015 12
- September 2015 11
- August 2015 11
- July 2015 16
- June 2015 6
- May 2015 9
- April 2015 10
- March 2015 6