Southern Africa: Water Deficits May Dominate April 2015 Through March 2016

Water deficits are expected to dominate Southern Africa for the 12-month period from April 2015 through March 2016, particularly in central South Africa and southern Mozambique (first map below). This is consistent with our prior forecast. 

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(12-Month)

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.) While conditions are forecast to moderate through December, exceptional deficits are possible in southern Namibia and western South Africa during the January through March time frame.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(3-Month)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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