East Asia: Water surpluses persist in southeast China, deficits forecast in the North China Plain

Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China, as depicted in the 12-month map below. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. 

Heavy snowfall in southeast China stranded up to 100,000 passengers at Guangzhou Railway Station who were traveling to Lunar New Year celebrations. Guangzhou has been cited as the global city predicted to incur the highest annual costs due to flooding by 2050, with nearby Shenzhen not far behind. Precipitation in the form of snow or rain in several Chinese provinces canceled flights, delayed rail schedules, and disrupted the holiday travel plans of millions.

Though surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China through April, as evident in the 3-month maps (below), a transition to moderate deficits in the region is also apparent in the later months of the forecast. Note also that severe to exceptional (10 to 40+ years) deficits are forecast in the North China Plain February through April, and moderate to extreme (5 to 40 years) deficits are forecast in North Korea August through October.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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