Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses in northern Kazakhstan, deficits in Turmenistan, Uzbekistan

The Big Picture
As shown in the 12-month composite water anomaly index below, exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan; farther west between the Ural and Emba Rivers northeast of the Caspian Sea; and, along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast in Russia in an area northwest of Kazakhstan, from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Impacts
Heavy rainfall has flooded several districts in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest metropolitan area. In separate storms both the Zhetysu and Alatau districts suffered damage to private homes and gardens and a landslide destroyed part of a highway. More than three times the normal rainfall has fallen in Atyrau, Kazakhstan since the beginning of May, flooding dozens of homes, schools, and community facilities.

Continuous heavy rain in and around Dushanbe, Tajikistan forced the evacuation of 1,500 people and flooded over 1,000 residences. A mudslide in Sughd Province left four people dead. Officials estimate that 17,800 are in need of humanitarian aid.

Forecast Breakdown
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Aforementioned water surpluses in Kazakhstan will persist for much of the forecast period, but both surpluses and deficits are forecast in some areas from August through January. Also noticeable is the gradual emergence of more widespread and more severe water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the persistent of deficits in Tajikistan during this period. Severe deficits along the Zeravshan River in Uzbekistan are traceable in the August through October map. Deficits are also forecast to emerge across parts of northern Kazakhstan in the later months.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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