Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Amazon, Bolivarian Nations to ...

Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile. 

South America: Amazon, Bolivarian Nations to observe continued deficits
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November ...

The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November 2024
*Special Topics, South America
ISciences staff
Escalating Drought Risk in the Amazon River ...

With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.

Escalating Drought Risk in the Amazon River Basin
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia

Caspian Sea

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses forecast in Ob & Yenisei River watersheds

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses forecast in Ob & Yenisei River watersheds

The forecast through February indicates intense water surpluses on the Ob, Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers in Russia. Surpluses will be widespread in the Middle Ob region and the Yenisei River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, reaching across the northern border into the Ural River watershed in Russia. Surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and along the Zerafshon River in Ubekistan. Deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and central Kyrgyzstan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to moderate in Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to moderate in Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan

The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to increase in Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to increase in Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan

In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.

Central Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan, deficits in Turkmenistan

Central Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan, deficits in Turkmenistan

Water surpluses are forecast to persist along rivers in Kazakhstan through March, though a transition to both deficits and surpluses is forecast January through March as abnormal to moderate deficits begin to emerge across the country. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and parts of Uzbekistan are expected to persist through September, diminish in October, after which moderate deficits will re-emerge throughout both countries in November. A vast expanse of moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September across northern Russia from the White Sea through much of the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin during this period which are expected to be especially widespread and severe in October. 

Middle East: Water deficits forecast for the Arabian Peninsula, esp Qatar & UAE

Middle East: Water deficits forecast for the Arabian Peninsula, esp Qatar & UAE

Water deficits are forecast to persist in many parts of the Middle East through February – particularly the Arabian Peninsula – though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish. Cyprus is forecast to transition out of exceptional deficit after May, while deficits in Qatar and United Arab Emirates may become more severe for the next six months. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits across southern Turkey are expected to linger through November before diminishing in severity.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.