ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST NOVEMBER 2020

16 November 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in August 2020 and running through July 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List November 16, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water deficits in the West, Southwest, and Northeast will shrink and downgrade considerably. Intense deficits are forecast for Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, and Florida. Surpluses will emerge in the Northwest.

Canada: The forecast through January 2021 indicates vast blocks of intense water deficit in the eastern half of the nation and deficits in southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Surpluses are expected in southern British Columbia with exceptional surpluses near Kelowna.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through January 2021 indicates water deficits in much of Mexico with intense anomalies in central Baja, southern Chihuahua, and from Nuevo León into Puebla. Areas of surplus include the Yucatán, Central America, Jamaica, and the Bahamas.

South America: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably, but deficits are forecast from western Venezuela into Peru, and in southern Guyana, southeastern Brazil, and southern Chile. Areas of surplus include northeastern Venezuela and northern Pará, Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably. Areas of deficit include Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus. Widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and in Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria, reaching well into surrounding nations and Romania.

Africa: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that water deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably. Exceptional deficits are forecast in Nigeria’s eastern Middle Belt States and southern Cameroon. Surpluses will persist in the Sahel and will shrink in East Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies will shrink considerably. However, deficits will intensify in Georgia and re-emerge in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria and around Mosul.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through January 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in the Ob River Watershed and widespread deficits in the Lena River Watershed. Surpluses in northern Kazakhstan will remain exceptional and surpluses on the Amu Darya River will become exceptional.

South Asia: The forecast through January 2021 indicates intense water surpluses in much of western India and the Deccan Plateau, Bangladesh, eastern Nepal into western Bhutan, and in the upper Harirud and Helmand River Watersheds of Afghanistan. Deficits will emerge in northwestern India.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through January 2021 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and eastern Thailand. Surpluses of lesser intensity are expected in the Philippines and eastern Indonesia. Deficits are forecast for pockets in northern Thailand.

East Asia: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Northeast China and the Yellow and Yangtze Basins, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits will increase in northwestern and coastal southeastern China. Deficits are forecast in Japan and surpluses in North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through January 2021 indicates that much of the region will return to near-normal conditions as water deficits retreat. Surpluses will persist in the central Murray-Darling Basin, increase in Riverina, and increase from Brisbane through the Australian Alps.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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