Europe: Widespread water surpluses in Central Europe & Russia

Europe: Widespread water surpluses in Central Europe & Russia

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2021 indicates intense water deficits from the Baltics to the Black Sea including extreme to exceptional deficits in much of Estonia and Latvia and large pockets in Belarus, central Ukraine, eastern Bulgaria, and the Don River Watershed and North Caucasus region in Russia. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finnish Lapland and deficits of varying intensity in Sweden’s southern half.

Widespread, intense surpluses are forecast for western European Russia and surpluses of varying intensity in Sweden’s northern half, around the Gulf of Bothnia, and in southern Norway, Denmark, much of the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Surpluses are also forecast in Czech Republic and will reach into surrounding nations including Slovakia, Poland, Austria, and Hungary. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include northwestern Romania, southern Serbia into Kosovo, and western Croatia.

Western and Mediterranean Europe can expect deficits of varying intensity. Deficits are forecast in pockets from northern Germany through much of France and several areas in Italy and Greece. Anomalies will be especially intense in Belgium and Luxembourg, the Harz and Erzgebirge Mountain ranges in Germany, and Sardinia and Sicily. Generally moderate deficits are forecast for France, but deficits will be severe in Auvergne. Normal conditions are expected in Spain’s northwest quadrant with mixed conditions elsewhere, primarily deficits.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates that deficits will shrink considerably, returning Ukraine and southern European Russia to near-normal conditions from prior widespread, exceptional deficit. Deficits remain in the forecast, however, for Estonia and Latvia, Finnish Lapland, central Sweden, and Belarus. Deficits are also expected in pockets of Germany; southern Belgium and Luxembourg; Auvergne and Provence, France; pockets of Italy; and Macedonian Greece. Regions with intense deficits include Estonia and Belgium/Luxembourg.

Widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and will be extreme to exceptional. Surpluses will also continue to be widespread in Central and parts of Eastern Europe, particularly in Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria, reaching well into surrounding nations, along rivers, and through Romania. The extent of exceptional surplus in Czech Republic will shrink, but anomalies will be extreme. Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in the northern Balkans. In the U.K. and Ireland surpluses will persist but moderate, and surpluses on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink considerably, persisting primarily in Castile La Mancha in central Spain.

From February through April 2021 surpluses will downgrade in western European Russia but remain widespread; increase somewhat in the Nordic nations; and shrink overall in Central and Eastern Europe, the U.K., and Ireland. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in southern Sweden, the Baltics, Belarus, and Germany, and will retreat from Belgium and Luxembourg. However, deficits will persist in pockets of France and Macedonian Greece, intensify somewhat in southern Italy, and emerge in northeastern Spain and eastern Bulgaria.

The forecast for the remaining months – May through July 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink considerably, persisting in northern European Russia and northern Scandinavia, and in pockets of Czech Republic and Poland. Deficits will increase in southern Norway and southern Sweden, and from the Baltics through Eastern Europe, becoming intense in Estonia and Belarus. Generally moderate deficits are expected in many pockets Mediterranean Europe reaching into central France and as far east as Bulgaria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Agricultural analysts in France have reduced their forecast for the country’s sugar beet crop as the summer drought impacts become more evident. The drought exacerbated jaundice disease spread by aphids. Crop estimates are now 28 percent below the 2019, putting the expected yield at the lowest in nearly 20 years.

Water deficits continue to affect the Baltic region. October 2020 hydroelectricity production from Latvia’s Daugava dam was 25 percent less than 2019’s October production, with the country’s overall electricity production for the month down 35 percent.

In mid-November, heavy rainfall set the stage for flood conditions in Crete for the third time in a month, damaging roads, businesses, and homes, and dragging cars into the sea.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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