Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread water surplus to persist in SE Asia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread water surplus to persist in SE Asia

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2021 indicates surpluses in many regions of Southeast Asia. Anomalies will be particularly widespread and intense in Vietnam with exceptional surpluses in Vietnam’s narrow neck, extreme surpluses in the Central Highlands, and moderate to exceptional surpluses in the Mekong Delta and in the far north.

In Laos, surpluses are expected to be severe in the north and exceptional in the south. Intense surpluses are forecast for many parts of Cambodia and will be particularly widespread in the east. Surpluses of varying intensity, including exceptional, are forecast for eastern and Peninsular Thailand; some moderate deficits are expected in pockets of the west. Myanmar, too, can expect widespread surpluses, and anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in many small pockets throughout the country but will be particularly pervasive west of the Irrawaddy River.

Severe deficits are forecast in Sarawak in Malaysian Borneo, while moderate surpluses are expected east of Brunei. A few pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Peninsular Malaysia and northeastern Sumatra. Pockets of surplus are expected throughout Indonesia including northern and eastern Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluku Islands, and pockets in New Guinea. Anomalies will be intense in northern Sulawesi and the western end of the Bird’s Head Peninsula in Papua, Indonesia.

Surpluses are also forecast for many areas of the Philippines and anomalies will be severe to exceptional in the central Philippines.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates widespread, intense surpluses in many regions of Southeast Asia. Surpluses will dominate Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos and will include exceptional anomalies. In Thailand, surpluses are forecast in the east and south; pockets of deficit are expected in the north. Myanmar can expect intense surpluses in the southwest, surpluses of lesser intensity in the north and east, and transitional conditions in the center of the nation and along the Irrawaddy River. Surpluses are forecast in the Philippines, Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluka Islands, and New Guinea. Anomalies will be extreme in the Bird’s Head Peninsula of New Guinea and Flores Island, and severe in the central Philippines. Conditions will be primarily normal in Malaysia, Sumatra, Java, and Borneo with some pockets of surplus in all those regions and a few small, isolated pockets of deficit in Borneo. Deficits will shrink in New Guinea with moderate deficits persisting on its northern shore, and will disappear in East Timor, transitioning to surplus.

From February through April 2021, widespread surpluses will persist in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and eastern and southern Thailand, with exceptional anomalies. Deficits in northern Thailand will shrink. In Myanmar, surpluses will shrink, and transitional conditions will increase in the west. Surpluses will increase in the Philippines, penetrating further into Luzon and Mindanao. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Indonesia, leaving scattered, moderate pockets. Deficits will emerge in Malaysia, Sumatra, Java, western Borneo, and central Sulawesi, primarily moderate but with some more intense pockets.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in Southeast Asia, persisting mainly in Vietnam. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the central Philippines and pockets in eastern Indonesia and New Guinea. Moderate deficits will persist in Malaysia and western Indonesia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Philippines continue to be battered by this season’s typhoons, eight of which have struck the island nation in the last two months. The most recent, Typhoon Vamco, hit in mid-November killing 7 people and flooding 40,000 homes in a Manila suburb. Nearly 3 million households around Manila were left without power.

On 1 November, Super Typhoon Goni landed, claiming the lives of 25 people and destroying 90 percent of the buildings on Catanduanes Island.

And at the end of October, Typhoon Molave skirted the country, flooding rural villages on islands south of Manila.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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