South Asia: Water surplus will persist in Bangladesh & SW India

South Asia: Water surplus will persist in Bangladesh & SW India

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2021 indicates widespread, water surpluses in many regions of India and in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan.

In India, surpluses will be widespread in the west and the Deccan Plateau, extending from Gujarat through Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and into Kerala. Surpluses will be exceptional from Mumbai through Karnataka and in Telangana, and extreme in Gujarat. Surpluses are also forecast for Bihar, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from Himachal Pradesh in the north reaching south into Madhya Pradesh, and in a pocket of southern India at the tip of Tamil Nadu. India’s Far Northeast can expect mixed conditions.

Surplus conditions will dominate all of Bangladesh with extreme to exceptional anomalies in most regions. In Nepal, surpluses are expected in much of the country, severe in Kathmandu and exceptional along the Gandak River through the center of the nation. Exceptional anomalies will prevail in much of the Indus River Basin in Pakistan; surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast in the north.

In Afghanistan, moderate deficits are forecast in the Hindu Kush and in the west surrounding Herat. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in the southeast from the Helmand River to the Pakistan border, and surrounding Mazar-e-Sharif in the north.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates transitional conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but intense surpluses will persist in northern Pakistan and in a large block of Afghanistan encompassing the upper regions of the Harirud and Helmand River Watersheds. In India, surpluses will persist in a distribution pattern much like that of the prior three months, but the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink in Telangana and increase in Karnataka. Moderate deficits will emerge in India’s northwest and exceptional deficits will persist in Uttarakhand. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir in the north and Gujarat in the west. Intense surpluses will persist in Bangladesh, western Bhutan, and eastern Nepal. Surpluses on the Gandak River will downgrade, and deficits will emerge in western Nepal. Sri Lanka will return to near-normal conditions.

From February through April 2021, transitional conditions are forecast in India from Gujarat through Goa with surpluses persisting in much of the Deccan Plateau, Karnataka, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir. Deficits will downgrade in the northwest and Uttarakhand. Conditions will normalize in much of Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan, but exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in Pakistan from the Ravi River near Lahore reaching west past the Indus River. Surpluses will persist in Bangladesh, eastern Nepal, and western Bhutan.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2021 – indicates that surpluses will increase in Pakistan; re-emerge in western India while persisting in the Deccan Plateau and emerging in West Bengal; retreat from east Nepal and emerge in the west; and retreat from Bangladesh. Deficits in northwestern India will nearly disappear but severe deficits will emerge in the Far Northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Over 150 communities in the Hyderabad area remain without access to clean drinking water after flooding from incessant rainfall contaminated the water supply. Water tankers have been deployed to address the needs of 100,000 people. Flood relief announced in early October by Telangana state officials was temporarily halted, prompting protests that led to ten arrests.

Late October rainfall in Bangladesh left 38,000 people affected by flooding in Khulna Division on the Bay of Bengal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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