ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JANUARY 2021

15 January 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in October 2020 and running through September 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List January 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: Water deficits in the West will shrink overall through March 2021, but anomalies will remain widespread and will be intense in Arizona, New Mexico, central Colorado, western Wyoming, and pockets of Southern California. Deficits in North Dakota will intensify, becoming exceptional.

Canada: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water deficits will increase and intensify in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. Exceptional deficits will persist in many regions of eastern Canada. Surpluses are forecast in southern British Columbia and around Calgary, Alberta.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through March 2021 indicates persistent water deficits of varying intensity in much of Mexico, with surpluses in the Yucatán and nearby southern states. Surpluses will persist throughout Central America, Jamaica, and the Bahamas.

South America: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably but will remain widespread in Brazil and Chile, and widespread surpluses will emerge across the northern portion of the continent. Deficits will be intense in many regions of Brazil and southern Chile.

Europe: The forecast through March 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in western European Russia, the Nordic nations, England, and from Switzerland through Romania. Deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, Germany, Belgium, and Macedonia.

Africa: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade. Deficits in North Africa will be mild to moderate overall. Surpluses will continue in the eastern Sahel, but transitions will begin in the west. Surpluses will persist in East Africa and emerge in south-central Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies will shrink. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in western Turkey and Georgia, and surpluses will persist in Iran around Lake Urmia and along the Caspian Coast. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in Syria.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through March 2021 indicates a vast expanse of intense water deficit in Russia from the Gulf of Ob through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Watershed, along the Upper and Middle Yenisei River, and the Volga.

South Asia: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in India’s Deccan Plateau, Bangladesh, eastern Nepal, and Afghanistan. Moderate deficits will emerge in western Rajasthan. Transitional conditions are expected from Gujarat into Karnataka.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through March 2021 indicates widespread, intense surpluses in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, eastern and southern Thailand, and the Philippines. Areas of deficit include northern Thailand, central Sulawesi, and Papua New Guinea’s northwestern coast.

East Asia: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread in the Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits are forecast for China’s coastal southeast, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and surpluses in North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water deficits will retreat, persisting in Australia’s southwestern tip and coastal Victoria. Areas of surplus include pockets in the Murray-Darling Basin and across northern Australia. Conditions in New Zealand will normalize.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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