United States: Deficits expand throughout SW, NE, central States

United States: Deficits expand throughout SW, NE, central States

22 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will expand throughout southwestern, central, and northeastern states. Surpluses will persist in Alaska and in portions of Florida.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Northeastern, central, and southeastern California, in eastern areas of the Shasta Cascades and into the Sierra Nevada and Southern California regions. These deficits continue into southern Nevada, western and eastern Arizona, and western New Mexico. 

  • Idaho, in areas along the state’s southeastern border continuing into western Wyoming. Deficits will also be present in western South Dakota, near the city of Sturgis.

  • Areas along the borders of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. Further north, eastern regions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula will experience extreme deficits. 

  • The Northeast, throughout regions of eastern coastal Maine, southeastern New Hampshire, eastern Massachusetts, central Connecticut, and in areas along the eastern border of New York and western border of Vermont. 

  • Southern Texas, near the cities of Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Florida, widespread throughout much of the state. 

  • Northeastern New Mexico, appearing in isolated areas near San Miguel County. 

  • Alaska, widespread throughout the northern and central regions of the state. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will spread throughout the southwest, spreading through southern California, New Mexico, Arizona, and southern Utah. Exceptional deficits will persist in northeastern Montana and northwestern North Dakota. Eastern portions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula region will observe extreme to exceptional deficits. Further east, eastern coastal regions of North Carolina and several northeastern states will observe exceptional deficits, primarily Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to occur in central Idaho, western Montana, western and northern Wyoming, and north-central Colorado. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in central to southern Florida, the Pacific Northwest, eastern areas of the Midwest, and throughout Alaska. 

From April through June 2025, exceptional deficits will continue in southwestern states, specifically in southern California, western to central New Mexico, and southern Texas. Extreme to exceptional deficits will also emerge in southern Utah. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in east-central Oregon and Washington, as well as northern and central Alaska. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – anticipates that pockets of exceptional deficits will continue in isolated regions of southern California, southern Nevada, and Arizona. Northern and central Alaska may experience continued moderate to severe surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Since January 7th, several devastating wildfires have spread throughout southern California, which have displaced thousands and caused at least 24 deaths. The fires intensified and spread due to prolonged drought throughout the area, as well as dried vegetation and the emergence of strong Santa Ana winds, which blew up to 100 mph. The Palisades fire, the largest, has burned over 23,000 acres as of January 13th, and is 14% contained. 

The Edwards Aquifer, central Texas’ largest groundwater system, started the new year with water levels of 40 feet lower than normal - a near record low - due to drought. A key well for the system recorded its second-lowest January 1st reading ever, which highlighted ongoing strain on local water systems from drought and a growing population. Water use restrictions are expected to continue in central Texas, and may increase in unprecedented severity as officials try to prevent water supplies from drying up.

On January 14th, the Department of the Interior announced $223 million in funding for 18 projects supporting water recycling and desalination projects across eight states. The funding comes as part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda. These projects aim to address impacts of drought and are estimated to generate 305,936 acre-feet of recycled water on an annual basis. Through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Bureau of Reclamation plans to invest a total of $8.3 billion over five years for water infrastructure projects, which prioritize water reuse, storage, conservation, and desalination.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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