Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through March indicates a pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months. Notable changes are as follows: deficits are expected to increase and intensify in southern Saskatchewan and to a lesser extent in southern Alberta; and, moderate surpluses will emerge in southwestern British Columbia and along the length of BC’s coast. Persisting conditions include intense deficits in the Ottawa-Gatineau Region of Quebec and across the border into Southern Ontario.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
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