Overall, exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, particularly in the Amazon Basin. Deficits are also forecast in Peru and Chile. Water surpluses are forecast in Paraguay; Uruguay; the Ibara Wetlands and Buenos Aires, Argentina; and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, surpluses in southern Brazil & central Argentina
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Deficits in Colombia and Venezuela may moderate somewhat March through May, and northwestern Venezuela may transition from deficits to exceptional surpluses. Thereafter, deficits are forecast to re-emerge as exceptional drought June through November across much of northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, across its eastern border into southern Brazil, and in central Argentina.
Is the Past Decade of Persistent Drought In Brazil a New Normal?
A sixty-year record of extreme weather conditions shows a disturbing pattern of deficit surface water conditions throughout Amazonia.The Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM) developed by ISCIENCES LLC is used to examine average monthly hydrological conditions throughout the basin. An apparent correlation with the emergence of temperature extremes over the same period begs the question whether man-made climate change is the root cause.The literature however points to man-made deforestation as the critical factor, raising concern that "the Amazon is losing the ability to control it's own climate." If true, consequences will have profound impact on the region and the global environment.
South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, surpluses in Argentina
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America through October 2016. Portions of Venezuela may transition from deficits to exceptional surpluses, then back to deficits. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina and are expected to increase in extent throughout the forecast period.
South America: Exceptional Water Deficits to Persist in Brazil, Severe to Exceptional Surpluses to Expand and Intensify in Argentina
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity throughout the forecast period.