South America: Exceptional Water Deficits to Persist in Brazil, Severe to Exceptional Surpluses to Expand and Intensify in Argentina

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile, as seen in the 12-month map (below). Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity throughout the forecast period.

The sequence of 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period illustrate the deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana are forecast to moderate from January through June and then re-emerge as exceptional drought July through September.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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