Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in much of Central America. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional surplus continues throughout central America
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, ...

Widespread deficits in South America will diminish in some countries, but will remain present in several regions of the Amazon, as well as some portions of the Andes.  

South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, Andes
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW ...

Exceptional deficits will remain throughout northwestern China and in the Yangtze River Basin. Central and northeastern China will observe moderate to severe surpluses.  

East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits

Surpluses in western Europe will mostly diminish, while exceptional deficits in eastern Europe will persist.  

Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in regions of Central Canada, the Prairie Provinces, and some of the Northern Territories.  

Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, central Canada

South Asia

South Asia: Severe to exceptional water deficits forecast for central & southern India

South Asia: Severe to exceptional water deficits forecast for central & southern India

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge April through June across central and southern India. Deficits will also emerge near Karachi, Pakistan and will continue to emerge in western Pakistan. Surpluses are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and along the northern Indus River in Pakistan. From July through September deficits in India will decrease in intensity but increase in extent as deficits emerge in the Chambal River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in Madhya Pradesh. Moderate to severe deficits are also forecast to emerge throughout Bangladesh. 

South Asia: Water deficits forecast in Gujarat, surpluses in eastern Afghanistan

South Asia: Water deficits forecast in Gujarat, surpluses in eastern Afghanistan

The March through May forecast indicates some relief from water deficit conditions for many parts of India. However, severe to extreme deficits are forecast to persist in Gujarat and moderate deficits are forecast in Uttarakhand, southern India, and Sri Lanka. Surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the eastern Ganges Basin, the eastern two-thirds of Nepal, and Bangladesh. Surpluses are also expected along the northern tributaries of the Indus River in Pakistan and in eastern Afghanistan.

South Asia: Water deficits continue to emerge in India, surpluses in NE Afghanistan

South Asia: Water deficits continue to emerge in India, surpluses in NE Afghanistan

Though the extent of exceptional deficits in southern India is forecast to diminish February through April, deficits will emerge across the country’s mid-section in places which, in the prior three months, had seen normal or surplus water conditions. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Gujarat and northeast India; and in Karachi, Pakistan. Surpluses are forecast along major rivers in northeastern Pakistan, throughout Afghanistan, and in eastern Nepal. From May through July deficits in India will diminish considerably in severity except in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Afghanistan and may be exceptional in the Upper Helmand Basin.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, & Gujarat

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, & Gujarat

The forecast for India through March includes widespread exceptional deficits in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, and Gujarat, with deficits of varying severity for much of the remainder of the country. Surpluses will persist in northwest Jharkhand, West Bengal, Nepal, and Bangladesh. After May deficits in India will diminish considerably, though severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for northwest Gujarat and across the border into Pakistan, and in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and southern India

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and southern India

Exceptional water deficits will persist in southern India through February and will emerge in Gujarat and persist through May. Surpluses in the Chambal and Ganges Basins will transition to both deficits and surpluses through February, after which surpluses are forecast in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Surpluses are forecast in western Myanmar through February, and in Nepal and Bangladesh through May. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Pakistan through February.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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