South America: Exceptional water deficits to persist across northern Brazil, surpluses in southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina

Exceptional water deficits may persist across northern Brazil, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern Chile as seen in the 12-month map (below). The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.

Surpluses may emerge in Ecuador and northern Peru. Surpluses are also forecast for central Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina and are expected to increase in extent and severity with widespread exceptional surpluses.

Brazilian electricity suppliers continue to suffer the financial effects of drought. Further south on the continent excessive rain is taking a toll on crops. Argentina's wheat production, marked by torrential rains, is expected to be just 8 millions tons this season. The area planted this year dropped 24 percent compared to last year due to high moisture.

Evident in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period is the forecast of a shift from deficit to surplus in northern South America in the second half of the forecast. Surpluses may begin to emerge in northern Peru, coastal Ecuador, and coastal Colombia; and then in Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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