Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south, as seen in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.

Water is currently being rationed in some communities in Mexico's southern state of Oaxaca. Climate change, says Oaxaca's Secretary of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, is responsible for the increase in rare pests and ailments resulting in recent severe losses in coffee and sorghum crops. In Michuacan, the prolonged drought has caused unemployment but offers of placement abroad are met with skepticism by locals.

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist and to increase in extent by May. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula in May and become more widespread and severe through July. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula for much of the forecast period, but may be especially severe in the spring.

Deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala. By the end of the forecast period – June through August – abnormal (3-5 years) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)