South Asia: Exceptional deficits forecast across much of India through February; notable surpluses in southeastern India

The forecast through August 2016, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below) indicates water deficits in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and most of India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern India, Sri Lanka, northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Of particular interest are the widespread and exceptional water deficits forecast for much of India December 2015 through February 2016, with the notable exception of moderate to exceptional surpluses in southeastern India. Deficits are expected to diminish in extent March through May, however, exceptional and widespread deficits are forecast in Goa, and from Gujarat northward. From June through August deficits in India are expected to diminish, and moderate surpluses are forecast for the southern half of the country. Moderate surpluses may also emerge along the northern portion of the Indus River in Pakistan. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)