Mexico, Central America, Caribbean: Widespread water deficits to persist

Exceptional drought has taken hold in portions of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, as seen in the first map below. Nearly one million people are facing a food emergency in Guatemala; Puerto Rico has instituted water restrictions; the Dominican Republic's worst drought in 15 years has halted irrigation; hunger driven crime is on the rise in Guerrero, Mexico as drought withers crops; and, the Panama Canal has reduced maximum ship draft in anticipation of El Niño-driven drought.

The current forecast through April 2016 (below) is consistent with our prior reports. Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast to spread in southern Mexico, Central America, Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.  The pattern of deficit conditions is expected to persist in many of these areas through the remainder of the forecast period, with greatest extent and severity August through October 2015.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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