The dominance of water deficits in much of Europe - with the exception of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and northern Sweden - is apparent in the 12-month composite map (below). The map is based on observed data through August and forecasts issued the last week of August 2015.

The impacts of the drought in Europe have been widely reported and include crop losses in France and Germany, record lows on rivers such as the Elbe, restrictions to civil and industrial water use, and wildfires. The drought in Germany has been called the worst in 12 years with some areas reporting the lowest levels of soil moisture since records began in 1951.

However, the forecast indicates a gradual transition to surpluses in many areas as evident in the 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period.

Though deficits are expected to persist in much of Europe through October, particularly along major rivers, they may diminish and transition to surpluses November 2015 through May 2016. Surpluses may emerge first in Western Europe and later in Central Europe. In contrast, water deficits are expected in the following areas November through May: Mediterranean Spain, Italy, and the Balkan Peninsula. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)