The forecast through June 2016, as seen in the composite 12-month map (below), indicates a predominance of water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015. However, exceptional deficits may persist in southern Victoria, southern South Australia, Tasmania, and from Perth southward. Moderate deficits may persist in North Island, New Zealand.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that September rainfall was below average for most of Australia, and was among the ten driest on record for Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia. Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin remains a contentious issue - water is now designated for "environmental flows" as well as for irrigation. In Tasmania, three seasons of significantly below average rainfall has created a serious situation for farmers - some of whom are saying they won't cut any hay or silage this season or are de-stocking.
The 3-month composite (below) for the same 12-month period shows the evolving conditions in more detail.
Deficits are forecast across much of Australia over the next several months but may diminish in most places by December, with the notable exceptions mentioned above. The transition to surpluses is evident in the latter half of the forecast period. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015