The forecast through July 2016, as seen in the composite 12-month map (below), indicates a predominance of water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. However, exceptional drought may persist in southern Victoria, southern South Australia, Tasmania, and from Perth southward. Moderate drought may persist in North Island, New Zealand.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology rainfall was the lowest on record for October for most of Tasmania and an area spanning the southwest of Victoria and southeastern South Australia. Hot, dry weather has slashed South Australia's grain forecast. The government of Victoria has announced a $27 million package to support farmers. Australia’s Climate Council estimates that water flow from rainfall into Perth’s dams in the southeast has dropped by 80% since the 1970s, with precipitation in the southwest corner of Australia forecast to drop by up to 40 percent by the end of the century.

Some signals of a transition in the north are beginning to appear. Recent storms have dropped more than 100 millimetres of rain in some areas of drought-stricken outback Queensland.

The 3-month composite (below) for the same 12-month period shows the evolving conditions in more detail.

Deficits across much of Australia may diminish in most places by November, with the notable exceptions mentioned above. The transition to surpluses is evident in the latter half of the forecast period.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)