Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2020 through January 2021 include: Chile, Brazil, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and northern European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 4 May 2020.
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