Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through September indicates nearly normal water conditions in northern Mexico with some mild deficits in Baja and moderate surpluses in northeastern Sonora, northern Coahuila, and northern San Luis Potosí. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast from Guanajuato through Chiapas. Deficits are expected in central Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Haiti. Moderate surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua and central Panama.
Intense water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. In the near-term, exceptional deficits across northwestern Mexico will moderate but severe deficits will emerge further south coast-to-coast from Jalisco through Veracruz and also in Oaxaca. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. After February intense deficits will emerge in southern Baja and Nayarit, Mexico but much of southern Mexico will return to nearly normal water conditions with scattered pockets of surplus.
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