Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist ...

Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist in Western Australia, Northern Territory
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region. 

Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE ...

Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.  

United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, ...

extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

East Asia

East Asia: Water deficits forecast for NE China, eastern Sichuan, southern Yunnan

East Asia: Water deficits forecast for NE China, eastern Sichuan, southern Yunnan

Recent widespread exceptional deficits in Mongolia into northeastern China, around the Bohai Sea, and on the Korean Peninsula are forecast to moderate. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia through early 2018, joined by a broad band of intense deficits that will develop across southern Mongolia westward through central Xinjiang from September on. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge July through September in northeast China, trailing southwest into eastern Sichuan, and in southern Yunnan. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for the southern Yangtze River Basin through September, moderating thereafter.

East Asia: Water deficits will continue to emerge in northeast China & Korea

East Asia: Water deficits will continue to emerge in northeast China & Korea

Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.

East Asia: Exceptional water deficits forecast for western Inner Mongolia

East Asia: Exceptional water deficits forecast for western Inner Mongolia

A return to near-normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from May through July, a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Yunnan, China; and northern Japan. Surpluses are forecast in Qinghai and in a wide north/south swatch of central Tibet. The forecast for August through October shows a significant retreat of water anomalies in China’s eastern half, with some moderate deficits in Guizhou, Sichuan, and coastal Guangdong.

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

A return to normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from April through June – a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits are forecast to emerge in South Korea, Japan, Northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, Henan, and Shaanxi. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning. Surpluses are forecast for northern Sichuan and much of Qinghai. The forecast for July through September indicates the persistence of deficits in western Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and the emergence of deficits in the Sichuan Basin. 

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

From March through May water deficits are forecast to persist in southern Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning in China; and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits are expected to emerge in southeast China from Zhejiang through eastern Yunnan, and in Taiwan, South Korea, and eastern Honshu, Japan. Moderate deficits will persist in southern Shaanxi and eastern Sichuan, and may become severe along the Han River. Surplus conditions are expected to persist in Jiangsu.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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