Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Europe

Europe: Water deficits to downgrade slightly, but widespread deficits will persist

Europe: Water deficits to downgrade slightly, but widespread deficits will persist

The forecast through October indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably but widespread deficits will continue to affect many parts of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe and will be especially intense in Finland, Estonia, and southern Germany. Moderate deficits will increase in France. Surpluses are forecast for Hungary, Serbia, Kosovo, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. On the Iberian Peninsula, surpluses will diminish overall, but persist in many parts of Spain and may be exceptional in the south.

Europe: Widespread water deficits to persist, esp in Germany & Finland

Europe: Widespread water deficits to persist, esp in Germany & Finland

The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.

Europe: Water deficits ahead for Central, Eastern, & Northern Europe

Europe: Water deficits ahead for Central, Eastern, & Northern Europe

The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.

Europe: Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe & the Balkans as deficits emerge

Europe: Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe & the Balkans as deficits emerge

Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe and the Balkans as deficits emerge. Deficits are also forecast for Northern Europe with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Intense surpluses are forecast for Hungary and for eastern Ukraine into Russia, with both deficits and surpluses in European Russia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula but retreat in France, with deficits emerging in Auvergne. Moderate surpluses will persist in Ireland, England, and Normandy.

Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Notable in the near-term forecast is the retreat of water surplus in Central Europe and a transition to moderate deficit. Deficits in Northern Europe are expected to persist and increase, with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will remain intense in Hungary, southern Romania, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria, and will increase in Ukraine. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Ireland and the UK, and will spread on the Iberian Peninsula. After June, mild deficits are forecast for Central Europe, more intense deficits in Northern Europe, and surplus in the western Iberian Peninsula.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.