South Asia: Water deficits expected in Southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and portions of India; surpluses forecast in southeastern India, Sri Lanka, northeastern Afghanistan, and Nepal

The forecast through September 2016, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below) indicates water deficits in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and portions of India, with many areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern India, Sri Lanka, northeastern Afghanistan, and Nepal.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Of particular interest are the widespread and exceptional water deficits forecast for much of India January through March 2016, with the notable exception of moderate to exceptional surpluses in southeastern India. Deficits are expected to diminish in extent April through June, and transition to moderate to severe surpluses July through September. Moderate surpluses are also forecast to emerge along the northern portion of the Indus River in Pakistan from April through September. Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are forecast to transition from surplus to deficit during July through September.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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