Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Persistent, widespread, and severe deficits forecast in Southeast Asia, Sumatra, eastern Borneo, southern Philippines, and the island of New Guinea

Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific through September 2016 as depicted in the map below. Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, Sumatra, eastern Borneo, the southern Philippines, and the island of New Guinea.

As seen in the 3-month maps (below), water deficits are forecast to gradually diminish in extent and severity January through September. Western Borneo is forecast to transition to moderate surpluses January through March, and Java is forecast to transition to surpluses in April through June. The Java surpluses are then forecast to intensify from July through September. In Southeast Asia, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to moderate somewhat April through June, and then begin to re-intensify from July through September.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.