Australia: Exceptional drought forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward; exceptional surpluses in the northwest

The forecast through September 2016, as seen in the composite 12-month map (below), indicates water surpluses in the north and along central rivers, with exceptional surpluses in northwest basins. Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward for much of the forecast period. The persistence of moderate drought in northern South Island, New Zealand and in North Island is also in the forecast.

The 3-month composite (below) for the same 12-month period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Deficits across much of Australia are forecast to diminish in most places by December, with the notable exceptions mentioned above. The transition to water surpluses across the north, as well as the persistence of deficits in the Murray-Darling Basin is evident in the January through March map. Surpluses are forecast to continue through September, with exceptional surpluses in the northwest. Deficits are forecast to emerge in the northernmost regions from July through September, with some northern regions experiencing both surpluses and deficits.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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