Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Chubut River

South America: Water deficits to shrink in Brazil but remain widespread & intense

South America: Water deficits to shrink in Brazil but remain widespread & intense

Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish in eastern Brazil

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish in eastern Brazil

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably in the coming months, but pockets are forecast through April in southern Venezuela, Amapá (Brazil), western Brazil, western Ecuador, and around the Gulf of Corcovado in southern Chile. Deficits are also forecast in southern Colombia, northern Peru, Uruguay, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and northeastern Argentina. Surplus is forecast in northeastern Venezuela, scattered throughout eastern Brazil, northern Bolivia, and eastern Paraguay. After April, the extent of anomalous water conditions will shrink. 

South America: Much wetter than normal conditions forecast for Paraguay

South America: Much wetter than normal conditions forecast for Paraguay

A number of significant transitions are forecast for the next three months. Though exceptional water deficits will diminish across northern South America – transitioning to surplus in many northern nations and the northern Amazon Basin – deficits will intensify in eastern Brazil. Surpluses are forecast to emerge throughout Paraguay and into southern Brazil. Surpluses in Uruguay will transition to moderate deficit; Buenos Aires Province, Argentina will transition from surplus to near-normal. After March, water anomalies will moderate considerably across most of the continent. 

South America: Intense water deficits to emerge in Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Pernambuco

South America: Intense water deficits to emerge in Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Pernambuco

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably over the next three months except in the western Amazon Basin in Brazil and Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. Deficits are also expected across Brazil’s Northeast region. Elsewhere on the continent, intense deficits are expected in western Bolivia and the Gulf of Corcovado, Chile. Areas of surpluses include central Colombia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; and La Pampa Province, Argentina. After February widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin and Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish considerably but persist in Brazil

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish considerably but persist in Brazil

A significant retreat of exceptional deficits is forecast November through January, though deficits are forecast for much of Brazil’s northern half and along its southeast coast from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro. Intense surpluses are forecast for central Colombia and Venezuela’s northeastern coast into Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate surpluses are forecast for northern Peru, northern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. After February, a transition from deficit to moderate surplus is forecast for northern Amazonian Brazil.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.