Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Ft. McMurray

Canada: Intense water surpluses to persist near Kelowna, BC

Canada: Intense water surpluses to persist near Kelowna, BC

Widespread water surpluses will continue to emerge in northeastern Quebec and surpluses are also forecast for central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan, and the central border of Alberta and British Columbia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast around Kelowna, BC. Significant areas of deficit include: the Ontario/Quebec border; from Calgary, Alberta northeast and from Banff into British Columbia; and, Prince George, BC. After February, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will normalize, widespread surpluses are expected in southern BC, and moderate deficits will emerge from Lake Superior eastward past Montreal. 

Canada: Extreme water surpluses to persist near Ottawa

Canada: Extreme water surpluses to persist near Ottawa

While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.

Canada: Intense water deficits forecast Sherbrooke QC, deficits Kelowna BC

Canada: Intense water deficits forecast Sherbrooke QC, deficits Kelowna BC

The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.

Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast in QC, surpluses southern BC, AB

Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast in QC, surpluses southern BC, AB

Widespread severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September in much of Quebec, along its border into Ontario, around Hudson Bay in Manitoba, and in central and northwestern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. Large pockets of exceptional surpluses are expected to persist through June in southeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and in central Manitoba. These surpluses are expected to diminish after June. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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