Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Widespread, intense water surpluses will emerge in southern British Columbia. Northern Quebec is expected to transition from surplus to normal conditions and moderate deficit. Nearly normal conditions will return to Northern Ontario’s Albany River region. Significant deficits are forecast along the Ontario/Quebec border corridor, surrounding Lake Mistassini QC, the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC.
Widespread water surpluses will continue to emerge in northeastern Quebec and surpluses are also forecast for central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan, and the central border of Alberta and British Columbia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast around Kelowna, BC. Significant areas of deficit include: the Ontario/Quebec border; from Calgary, Alberta northeast and from Banff into British Columbia; and, Prince George, BC. After February, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will normalize, widespread surpluses are expected in southern BC, and moderate deficits will emerge from Lake Superior eastward past Montreal.
While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.
The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.
Water deficits of varying severity are expected through October in central and northern Quebec, Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia and Alberta. These deficits may be exceptional through July in Ontario along the border with Quebec and northeastern Manitoba, and through October across central Quebec. Moderate surpluses are forecast through October in southern Quebec. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast through July in northeastern British Columbia; and through October from northwestern Saskatchewan into Ft. McMurray, Alberta, and northwest of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
