Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges throughout S Mexico, Central America
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe

Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity. 

Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues ...

Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.  

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in N Australia
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Deficits persist in Amazonas, ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.  

South America: Deficits persist in Amazonas, Bolivarian Nations
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits persist in Prairie Provinces, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in several areas of the Prairie Provinces, as well as in regions of central and eastern Canada. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in various regions of Nunavut. 

Canada: Deficits persist in Prairie Provinces, C and E Canada

Cordillera Real Mountains

South America: Water deficits to persist in Chile

South America: Water deficits to persist in Chile

Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from December through February large pockets of exceptional deficits are forecast to persist across central Brazil, Venezuela, French Guiana, western Bolivia, and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central and northeastern Colombia; northern Pará, Brazil; La Pampa, Argentina; and, both deficits and surpluses between the Chabut and Desaguadero Rivers in Argentina. After February overall conditions will improve across the continent.

South America: Transitioning away from exceptional water deficits

South America: Transitioning away from exceptional water deficits

Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from November through January pockets of extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in western Amazonas and central Brazil, the Cordillera Real Mountains of Bolivia, and scattered down through the nations along the Pacific Ocean, particularly Chile. Surpluses are forecast for: central and eastern Colombia, northern Bolivia, the Amazon Basin from Manaus to Amapá, eastern Paraguay into Argentina, and La Pampa, Argentina. From February to April water deficits will continue to diminish, with the exception of Chile where areas of significant deficit will persist.

South America: Exceptional deficits along Brazil's northeastern coast

South America: Exceptional deficits along Brazil's northeastern coast

Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from October through December exceptional deficits are forecast along Brazil’s northeastern coast, along with many parts of Chile, Tierra del Fuego, and the Falkland Islands. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, central Brazil, and northwestern Argentina. From January through March northern Brazil is forecast to transition from deficit to moderate surplus.

South America: Water deficits persist in Chile, surpluses forecast in Paraguay

South America: Water deficits persist in Chile, surpluses forecast in Paraguay

South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits in December. However, from September through November exceptional deficits are forecast across northern Brazil along with moderate deficits reaching southward to Rio de Janeiro. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast near Caracas, Venezuela; western Bolivia; Chile; rivers in southern Argentina; and the Falkland Islands. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Paraguay, and Paraná and Santa Catarina, Brazil. Overall, water deficit conditions will continue to diminish in extent and severity from December through May.

South America: Exceptional water deficits persist in central Brazil

South America: Exceptional water deficits persist in central Brazil

South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits after October. However, until then exceptional deficits are forecast for much of Brazil north of Rio, along with deficits of varying severity elsewhere in South America. By December the extent of exceptional water deficits in Brazil will diminish except along the Amazon River and in Amapá and Maranhão. From November on moderate deficits are forecast in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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