Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months, but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela east of Lake Maracaibo and near the border with Guyana; southern Bolivia; and along a path beginning south of Lima, Peru, through northern Chile. Deficits in Argentina will moderate and surpluses will emerge in northern Buenos Aires Province.
A significant retreat of water deficits is forecast October through June, but through December exceptional deficits are expected in northernmost Brazil and into neighboring countries. Deficits are also forecast north of Lake Titicaca in Peru through La Paz and Cochabamba, Bolivia and into Argentina. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are predicted in much of eastern Brazil, which may be more severe along the coast of the State of São Paulo. Surpluses are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and O’Higgins Lake in Patagonia. After December widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin
Though the extent of water deficits in South America is expected to shrink somewhat April through June, deficits remain in the forecast for many areas including central and eastern states of Brazil, Bolivia’s northern border, coastal Peru from Lima south, northern Chile, and southernmost Patagonia. Surpluses are forecast in western Buenos Aires Province, Argentina into La Pampa Province, and Neuquén Province. From July through September deficits are forecast for much of the northern half of South America as deficits persist in Brazil and emerge from Colombia through French Guiana.
Though the extent of water deficits in South America is expected to shrink March through May, deficits are forecast in central and eastern states of Brazil, western French Guiana into eastern Suriname, Bolivia, Chile, and coastal Peru. Surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, in a line down western Argentina, in central Buenos Aires Province (Argentina), in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná (Brazil), northern Peru, northern Guyana, Suriname, and parts of Ecuador. From June through August deficits are forecast to persist across Brazil’s mid-section and emerge in Piauí and across northern Brazil. Deficits are also forecast for Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, coastal Peru, and northern Chile. Surpluses will persist in aforementioned areas of Paraguay and Argentina.
Though the extent of water deficits in South America is expected to shrink overall February through April, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in eastern Brazil as well as pockets in some western states. Deficits in Bolivia are forecast to shrink in extent but large pockets will persist, and the extent of deficits in Chile will shrink slightly. Surpluses will continue to emerge in central and northeastern Argentina; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; northern Peru; and eastern Colombia. From May through June deficits will persist in eastern Brazil but much of the Amazon Basin will transition to near-normal. Deficits along Peru’s coast will increase in intensity, becoming exceptional.
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