Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Medan

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Retreat of water surpluses forecast

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Retreat of water surpluses forecast

Though a significant retreat of exceptional water surplus in the region is forecast through October, exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast for: western Myanmar; eastern Thailand into southern Laos; and, southeastern Sulawesi and Sumbawa and Flores Islands in Indonesia. Exceptional deficits are forecast for a large block of western Cambodia, and deficits of varying severity are forecast for the Mekong Delta, southern Thailand, Singapore, Malaysian Borneo, southern Sumatra, and pockets in central Papua New Guinea. After October, near-normal conditions are expected in many parts of the region and deficits in western Cambodia will moderate.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia and Mekong Delta

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia and Mekong Delta

The July through September forecast shows the near absence of widespread surpluses observed in prior months. However, exceptional surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar; northern Prachuap Khiri Khan Province, Thailand; the extreme southeastern region of Sulawesi; and Flores Island in Indonesia. Severe to exceptional deficits are indicated in much of Cambodia, in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, and in central Papua New Guinea. In the October-December timeframe moderate deficits are indicated in many parts of the region, and thereafter deficits in Southeast Asia may intensity.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Much of the region has experienced exceptional water surplus conditions in the most recent observations. These moderate in the near-term forecast and subside completely September through February 2018. Recently observed exceptional deficits in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea subside during the June through August period. In the December through February 2018 forecast period deficits may emerge over mainland Malaysia and coastal Myanmar.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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