Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast for January 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of October 2023 through September 2024 in northeastern Africa, northern South America, the Middle East, western and northern South America, and the majority of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include southeastern Africa, Europe, and western Central Asia.
The forecast for December 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of September 2023 through August 2024 throughout Canada, central to northern South America, northern and southern Africa, and southern regions of the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include southeastern Africa, Europe, and several regions in Southeast Asia.
The forecast for November 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2023 through July 2024 in South America, northern and southern Africa, Mexico, the Middle East, northern China, and the majority of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include southeastern Africa, Alaska, and various regions of Europe.
The forecast for October 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2023 through June 2024 in northern Africa, the Middle East, northern China, western and northern South America, and the majority of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the western United States, Alaska, north-central Australia, and southeastern Africa.
The forecast for September 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of June 2023 through May 2024 in northern Africa, northern and western South America, the Middle East, and most of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the western United States, north-central Australia, and southeastern Africa.
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