Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to persist in N Mainland SE Asia
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: Deficits continue across S and E Europe

Severe to exceptional surpluses will mostly resolve in Western Europe, but emerge in northern countries. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in Southern and Eastern Europe. 

Europe: Deficits continue across S and E Europe
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist ...

Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist in Western Australia, Northern Territory
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region. 

Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE ...

Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.  

United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states

South Asia

South Asia: Intense water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan

South Asia: Intense water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan

Exceptional water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan, while decreasing slightly. Deficits in Pakistan will generally moderate. India will transition from widespread water deficits to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficits are forecast surrounding Chandigarh, moderate deficits in Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Odisha, West Bengal, and along the Tapi River. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Gandaki River in Nepal. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Bangladesh.

South Asia: Intense Water Deficits forecast to persist in Madhya Pradesh & Afghanistan

South Asia: Intense Water Deficits forecast to persist in Madhya Pradesh & Afghanistan

India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.

South Asia: Intense water deficits forecast for Afghanistan thru August or longer

South Asia: Intense water deficits forecast for Afghanistan thru August or longer

Through May, intense water deficits are forecast for India’s northern half, moderate deficits in the south, with exceptional conditions in Karnataka along the Tungabhadra River. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and the western Penner River Basin in India, as well as Bangladesh and Nepal. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for western Maharashtra. Intense deficits are forecast for Afghanistan and southern Pakistan. After May, deficits in India will be mild in the north, moderate in the south, and mild surpluses will emerge across the middle.

South Asia: Water deficits persist in central India but surplus forecast after April

South Asia: Water deficits persist in central India but surplus forecast after April

Intense water deficits will persist in central India through April, after which a transition to surplus is forecast stretching coast to coast across the country’s middle. Until the transition, deficits will be extreme in Madhya Pradesh, western Chhattisgarh, western Karnataka, and eastern Andhra Pradesh, and moderate deficits will emerge in Odisha, Telangana, and southern Tamil Nadu. Intense surplus will persist in Bangladesh, nearby Indian states, and Nepal. Deficits in Afghanistan will downgrade but persist, as will deficits in northern Sri Lanka.

South Asia: Intense water deficits Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, eastern Gujarat

South Asia: Intense water deficits Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, eastern Gujarat

Intense water deficits are forecast to persist in Madhya Pradesh, India through June 2018. Through March, deficits will spread throughout much of India. Intense deficits will persist in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, and will emerge in eastern Gujarat. Deficits will be moderate in southern Pakistan but more severe in Afghanistan. Exceptional surpluses will continue in Bangladesh and nearby states in India. After March, water anomalies will downgrade overall, but deficits will persist in Madhya Pradesh and will emerge in India’s far northeast, and surpluses will re-emerge in the Pennar River Basin. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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