The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink in India, leaving a broad path from Gujarat into the Gangetic Plain. Surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh, but remain widespread and intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Conditions in Tamil Nadu will normalize from prior deficit.
The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses in India will shrink leaving nearly normal conditions in the east. Surpluses will persist, however, in many regions including central India, the Far North, and the Gangetic Plain; and, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Deficits will emerge in India’s Far Northeast.
India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
Water surpluses in Rajasthan, India are forecast to transition to both deficit and surplus in the next few months, while surpluses in the eastern Ganges basin persist. Surpluses are also forecast for: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. Deficits are forecast north of Delhi, in India’s southern tip, and in Sri Lanka. From January through March deficits in India’s north and south, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will diminish, but exceptional deficits are forecast in Gujarat.
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