Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through April indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink slightly, deficits in Thailand will downgrade, and moderate deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar. Deficits are also forecast for the Philippines, eastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, pockets of Sumatra, and central New Guinea. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam with exceptional conditions in the north including Hanoi, and in north-central Laos.
The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, New Guinea, Java, pockets in Sumatra, and eastern Mindanao. Deficits will diminish somewhat in northwestern Cambodia, increase in southeastern Thailand, and emerge in Vietnam east of Hanoi and in central Myanmar. Surpluses are forecast for western and southern Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia into Vietnam, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tenggara.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Moderate deficits are forecast for northern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, northern Luzon, and pockets of Sumatra and Java. More intense deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand and Malaysia, eastern Papua New Guinea, western Timor Leste, and West Nusa Tengara. Surpluses are expected in north-central Vietnam, northern Borneo, northern Sumatra, central Philippines, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tengara, and Pulau Sumba.
Cambodia continues to stand out through May in Southeast Asia with exceptional water deficit in the west. Surpluses are forecast for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and may be especially intense in western Myanmar, around the Gulf of Tonkin, central Philippines, and Brunei. Deficits will emerge in the southern tip of Sumatra and into Java, but are expected to nearly disappear in Papua New Guinea, persisting mainly around the Gulf of Papua. After May, surpluses in the region will retreat and Cambodia will return to near-normal conditions.
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