Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in much of Central America. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional surplus continues throughout central America
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, ...

Widespread deficits in South America will diminish in some countries, but will remain present in several regions of the Amazon, as well as some portions of the Andes.  

South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, Andes
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW ...

Exceptional deficits will remain throughout northwestern China and in the Yangtze River Basin. Central and northeastern China will observe moderate to severe surpluses.  

East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits

Surpluses in western Europe will mostly diminish, while exceptional deficits in eastern Europe will persist.  

Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in regions of Central Canada, the Prairie Provinces, and some of the Northern Territories.  

Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, central Canada

Central Asia & Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Intense Water deficits forecast for Ural River Basin

Central Asia & Russia: Intense Water deficits forecast for Ural River Basin

The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, esp Fergana Valley

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, esp Fergana Valley

Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to emerge in Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to emerge in Kazakhstan

Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity. 

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

The forecast through March indicates exceptional surpluses in European Russia, along the Middle Ob River, the Tom River Basin, and Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Yenisei River. Exceptional deficits are expected in the Yamal Peninsula. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After March, surpluses in Russia are forecast to diminish. Deficits will downgrade in Yamal, persist in Turkmenistan, and spread in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Caucasus, western Kyrgyzstan and western Tajikistan. 

Central Asia & Russia: Widespread water surpluses to persist in W Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Widespread water surpluses to persist in W Russia

In the near-term, surpluses are forecast in Russia along the Sukona River; the Upper Volga River, Volga Uplands, Lower Volga, and Transvolga Region; and the Ob, Vakh, and Tom Rivers. Deficits will persist in the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in Aktobe, Kostanay, and western Akmola Regions in Kazakhstan but widespread intense deficits will emerge in the northeastern part of the country. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to moderate. After February, deficits will spread in Central Asia and Russia.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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