Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist ...

Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist in Western Australia, Northern Territory
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region. 

Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE ...

Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.  

United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, ...

extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

East Asia

East Asia: Intense water surpluses forecast for southern China

East Asia: Intense water surpluses forecast for southern China

Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.

East Asia: Intense water surpluses in Jilin & Heilongjiang

East Asia: Intense water surpluses in Jilin & Heilongjiang

The near-term forecast through November indicates intense surpluses in China’s Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces; along the Yellow River; in Shaanxi, southern Gansu, and Qinghai; and in Tibet. Surpluses are also forecast for southern China and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across much of Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin, South Korea, and southwestern Japan.

East Asia: Water surpluses will shrink in China; deficits forecast for Korea & Japan

East Asia: Water surpluses will shrink in China; deficits forecast for Korea & Japan

Through the next several months, widespread water surpluses in the center of China will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses further east in Hubei, Henan, and Anhui will transition to mild deficit. In the south, moderate to severe surpluses will increase in Yunnan and western Guangxi. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Southeast China. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in Liaoning and Jilin in the northeast, and will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and Honshu, Japan.

East Asia: Water surpluses will persist in Henan, deficits in Hunan

East Asia: Water surpluses will persist in Henan, deficits in Hunan

Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.

East Asia: Water deficits expected to increase in Northeast China

East Asia: Water deficits expected to increase in Northeast China

Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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