East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Deficits spread in Afghanistan, ...

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India. 

South Asia: Deficits spread in Afghanistan, Pakistan, N India
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits ...

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish, though some regions will observe continuing severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions in Mainland Southeast Asia will observe exceptional deficits. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Laos, Vietnam
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in ...

Widespread surpluses in southwestern Russia will mostly diminish. Exceptional deficits are expected in portions of the Urals, European Russia, northern coastal Russia, and in regions east of Lake Baikal. 

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in European Russia, Urals, Buryatia
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Severe, ...

Severe to exceptional deficits along the southern coast of Australia will dissipate, though some will continue in Victoria and New Zealand. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in Queensland. 

Australia & New Zealand: Severe, exceptional surpluses continue in Queensland

Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Baja & Sonora

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Severe water deficits forecast for Baja & Sonora

In the next few months intense water deficits will continue to emerge in Baja, Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sonora and north-central Mexico. Relatively normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, but intense surplus conditions are forecast for Jamaica. Deficits in western Cuba will downgrade to mild. After June, severe deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Moderate surpluses will emerge along rivers in eastern Sonora, Mexico.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast Baja, Sonora, Nayarit

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast Baja, Sonora, Nayarit

In the next few months water deficits in Baja, Mexico will remain intense, with exceptional deficits emerging in the south. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also forecast for Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, along with deficits slightly less severe in Chihuahua. Surpluses of varying severity will continue to emerge in pockets of southern Mexico leading into northern Guatemala and Belize, where conditions may be extreme. Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast for Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Baja, Nayarit, & W Cuba

In the next few months, exceptional water deficits will retreat in northwestern Mexico but persist in southern Baja and emerge in Nayarit. Severe deficits are forecast in the north-central states and along the Rio Grande. Some pockets of surplus are expected in southern Mexico and northern Guatemala, and more intense surpluses in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Severe deficit is forecast for western Cuba and the Bahamas. After April, deficits will downgrade in southern Baja and surpluses will emerge in western Mexico from Durango into Oaxaca.

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Baja & Nayarit

Intense water deficits across northwestern Mexico are expected to moderate from January through March, but moderate to severe deficits will spread in the north-central states. Intense deficits will emerge in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. After March, deficits are forecast in northern Mexico, moderate surpluses along the southwestern coast, and surpluses in Central America will diminish. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits to moderate in W Cuba, emerge in Oaxaca

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits to moderate in W Cuba, emerge in Oaxaca

Intense water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. In the near-term, exceptional deficits across northwestern Mexico will moderate but severe deficits will emerge further south coast-to-coast from Jalisco through Veracruz and also in Oaxaca. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. After February intense deficits will emerge in southern Baja and Nayarit, Mexico but much of southern Mexico will return to nearly normal water conditions with scattered pockets of surplus. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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