Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in much of Central America. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional surplus continues throughout central America
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, ...

Widespread deficits in South America will diminish in some countries, but will remain present in several regions of the Amazon, as well as some portions of the Andes.  

South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, Andes
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW ...

Exceptional deficits will remain throughout northwestern China and in the Yangtze River Basin. Central and northeastern China will observe moderate to severe surpluses.  

East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits

Surpluses in western Europe will mostly diminish, while exceptional deficits in eastern Europe will persist.  

Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in regions of Central Canada, the Prairie Provinces, and some of the Northern Territories.  

Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, central Canada

South Asia

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits to persist in Karnataka, Kerala

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits to persist in Karnataka, Kerala

In India from November through January exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Karnataka and Kerala, diminish in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and emerge in northern states and coastal Gujarat. Surpluses are forecast along the Banas River, and in Nepal, Bangladesh, and western Myanmar, and are expected to persist through April. From February through April exceptional deficits will emerge throughout Gujarat. Surpluses will persist in the Chambal River Basin and will re-emerge in the Ganges Basin.

South Asia: Surpluses to persist in eastern Ganges basin, Nepal, Bangladesh

South Asia: Surpluses to persist in eastern Ganges basin, Nepal, Bangladesh

Water surpluses in Rajasthan, India are forecast to transition to both deficit and surplus in the next few months, while surpluses in the eastern Ganges basin persist. Surpluses are also forecast for: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. Deficits are forecast north of Delhi, in India’s southern tip, and in Sri Lanka. From January through March deficits in India’s north and south, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will diminish, but exceptional deficits are forecast in Gujarat.

South Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Ganges and connecting basins

South Asia: Water surpluses to persist in Ganges and connecting basins

Water surpluses are forecast to continue to emerge through May in India from southern Rajasthan along the Chambal River and its tributaries, eastward to the Yamuna River, to the Ganges River, and into Bangladesh. Surpluses are also forecast for Myanmar’s western coast through November and in Bangladesh through May. Deficits in southern India are forecast to become less severe after November, but deficits will emerge in Assam and surrounding states in the northeast. Deficits will persist in Gujarat through May becoming more severe from December on.

South Asia: Water surpluses forecast in central India, deficits in the south

South Asia: Water surpluses forecast in central India, deficits in the south

Water surpluses are forecast for central India for the next several months, though the extent and severity will diminish. Deficits are forecast for southern and northwestern India, western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Odisha, India in August and for Gujarat in December. Deficits will emerge in Sri Lanka in December. Moderate surpluses are expected to persist in Bangladesh through April.

South Asia: Water deficits forecast in India, esp Odisha; surpluses in Bangladesh

South Asia: Water deficits forecast in India, esp Odisha; surpluses in Bangladesh

Water deficits are forecast for much of India, Pakistan, and western Afghanistan while surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, in central Nepal, Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and western Sri Lanka. Deficits may be especially severe in July throughout India’s southern half. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Ganges Basin in July, and exceptional surpluses are forecast along the northern Indus through Punjab, Pakistan in July and August. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan, northeastern Indian states, and Myanmar in August and continue to emerge through March.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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