Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Amazon, Bolivarian Nations to ...

Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile. 

South America: Amazon, Bolivarian Nations to observe continued deficits
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November ...

The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November 2024
*Special Topics, South America
ISciences staff
Escalating Drought Risk in the Amazon River ...

With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.

Escalating Drought Risk in the Amazon River Basin
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia

Mendoza

South America: Widespread, intense water deficits in much of Brazil

South America: Widespread, intense water deficits in much of Brazil

Though a slight reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits is expected, the forecast for the next three months indicates a basic pattern of water conditions similar to observed conditions in the prior three months which includes widespread, intense deficits in most of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro and surpluses in La Pampa Province, Argentina. In addition, a transition from surplus to deficit is forecast in Brazilian states south of Rio and in eastern Paraguay. After October deficits across northern South America are forecast to shrink considerably.

South America: Exceptional water deficits in Brazil forecast to retreat to the north after September

South America: Exceptional water deficits in Brazil forecast to retreat to the north after September

Recently observed conditions across the whole of South America are expected to persist through September with a slight decrease in the extent of exceptional water deficits in much of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro. Surpluses in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil should transition to near-normal conditions during this period, but exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina. After September conditions are forecast to improve across the continent though exceptional water deficits will persist in Amapá and northern Pará, Brazil and in nearby northern regions.

South America: Widespread exceptional water deficits for much of Brazil

South America: Widespread exceptional water deficits for much of Brazil

Recently observed water conditions across the whole of South America are expected to persist through the near-term forecast period with widespread exceptional water deficits spanning the whole of northern Brazil and the Amazon basin. Exceptional surpluses in central Argentina and southern Paraguay persist in the near-term before moderating in the later forecast periods. In the September through November period, severe to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northern Chile and across the northern states of Brazil including Roraima, Pará, and Amapá.

South America: Water deficits to persist in central Brazil, Chile, southern Argentina

South America: Water deficits to persist in central Brazil, Chile, southern Argentina

Exceptional water deficits are forecast for much of northern and central Brazil from July into October. From October to December deficits will diminish in central Brazilian states but persist across the north, and widespread deficits will emerge in other countries in northern South America. Deficits will also persist in Peru, Chile, and southern Argentina. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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