Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Mendoza

South America: Widespread, intense water deficits in much of Brazil

South America: Widespread, intense water deficits in much of Brazil

Though a slight reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits is expected, the forecast for the next three months indicates a basic pattern of water conditions similar to observed conditions in the prior three months which includes widespread, intense deficits in most of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro and surpluses in La Pampa Province, Argentina. In addition, a transition from surplus to deficit is forecast in Brazilian states south of Rio and in eastern Paraguay. After October deficits across northern South America are forecast to shrink considerably.

South America: Exceptional water deficits in Brazil forecast to retreat to the north after September

South America: Exceptional water deficits in Brazil forecast to retreat to the north after September

Recently observed conditions across the whole of South America are expected to persist through September with a slight decrease in the extent of exceptional water deficits in much of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro. Surpluses in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil should transition to near-normal conditions during this period, but exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina. After September conditions are forecast to improve across the continent though exceptional water deficits will persist in Amapá and northern Pará, Brazil and in nearby northern regions.

South America: Widespread exceptional water deficits for much of Brazil

South America: Widespread exceptional water deficits for much of Brazil

Recently observed water conditions across the whole of South America are expected to persist through the near-term forecast period with widespread exceptional water deficits spanning the whole of northern Brazil and the Amazon basin. Exceptional surpluses in central Argentina and southern Paraguay persist in the near-term before moderating in the later forecast periods. In the September through November period, severe to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northern Chile and across the northern states of Brazil including Roraima, Pará, and Amapá.

South America: Water deficits to persist in central Brazil, Chile, southern Argentina

South America: Water deficits to persist in central Brazil, Chile, southern Argentina

Exceptional water deficits are forecast for much of northern and central Brazil from July into October. From October to December deficits will diminish in central Brazilian states but persist across the north, and widespread deficits will emerge in other countries in northern South America. Deficits will also persist in Peru, Chile, and southern Argentina. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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