Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period December 2022 through November 2023 include: Canada, the Middle East, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: the western United States, Pakistan, Malaysia, central Africa, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 March 2023.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2022 through October 2023 include: Canada, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, the Middle East, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines, central Africa, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 February 2023.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period October 2022 through September 2023 include: northern Africa, Chile, Venezuela, Canada, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: Pakistan, Thailand, Cambodia, central Africa, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 January 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period September 2022 through August 2023 include: North Africa, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Canada, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: Pakistan, Thailand, Cambodia, southeastern Australia, and eastern Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 5 December 2022.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period August 2022 through July 2023 include: North Africa, Chile, Southeast China, and Europe. Areas of significant water surplus include: Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 November 2022.
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