Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
South Africa stands out in the November Outlook with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures. Much of Asia, Indonesia, and the southern and eastern US are expected to be warmer than normal. Much drier than normal conditions are expected in a path following the Andes from Colombia through Brazil, while wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the US Northern Plains states and pockets of central Africa.
The forecast through April indicates the beginning of a transition from water surplus to deficit, after which deficits of varying intensity will prevail. Through April surpluses are forecast for Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, the Philippines, and North Sumatra, Indonesia. Exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia, while Thailand can expect deficits in the north and surpluses in the south. Java is expected to transition from surplus to deficit. Deficits will emerge in central Borneo and will persist in Papua New Guinea. After April deficits are forecast for most of the region, and may be more severe and widespread in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
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