The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably in the coming months though southern Europe will remain in moderate deficit through April 2018. Some relief is in the near-term forecast, particularly for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, as exceptional deficits shrink through October, though Finland will remain in the grip of intense deficits. Surpluses are forecast for western Russia, the border of Romania and Moldova, and a pocket in north-central Germany.
Europe: Water deficits in Western Europe, surpluses in western European Russia
Deficits will persist in much of Western Europe and Scandinavia, will spread in the Iberian Peninsula and in Italy, and will emerge in eastern Czech Republic, western Slovakia, and Hungary. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Belarus, Ukraine, northeastern Romania, and in a vast expanse of western European Russia. The UK and Ireland are expected to transition from deficit to near-normal conditions. After May the forecast indicates a retreat of surpluses and the continued emergence of deficits throughout Europe.
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2017
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2016 through October 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, French Guiana, Chile, Brazil, France, Germany, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Arctic Russia, southern India, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, Inner Mongolia, and Queensland. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Nevada, California, northern Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, central Vietnam, southern Thailand, and Shanghai. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 February 2017.
Europe: Water surpluses ahead for Eastern Europe, deficits in the west and Scandinavia
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist through January in Western Europe, Sweden, and Finland, while Eastern Europe transitions to conditions of water surplus which will persist through April. Deficits in Western Europe will persist through April or longer and deficits will continue to emerge in Mediterranean Europe.
Europe: Water deficits, especially Scandinavia, Spain & Ukraine, surpluses in western European Russia
For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe especially Spain, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Although the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for western European Russia. From January through March deficits are expected to diminish in both extent and severity across Europe. Surpluses will continue to emerge in European Russia during that period and will also emerge in the Baltics and southern Scandinavia.