Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits will remain intense in Northern Europe, especially in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Other areas of intense deficit include Luxembourg, northern Germany, central France and the Loire River, and along the Drava River through Austria. Areas of surplus include Scotland, central Italy and around the Adriatic Sea, Serbia, and northern Romania.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2019 through February 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Somalia, Angola, and Namibia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, western Iran, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 10 June 2019
Water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe through September but will diminish significantly thereafter. Through September, however, exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, Estonia, and many pockets of Western and Central Europe. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected along many rivers including the Danube, the Drava, the Rhine, the Rhône, and the Loire. Surpluses in Western Russia will persist through September but diminish in extent and severity except in Murmansk, where exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for eastern Romania and Moldova which will persist through December.
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