Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India ...

The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S. 

United States: Exceptional deficits to emerge in SW states
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses ...

The forecast indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Kaliningrad

Europe: Water surplus to persist in Ireland, Central Europe, & European Russia

Europe: Water surplus to persist in Ireland, Central Europe, & European Russia

The forecast indicates a transition in April to water deficits across much of Europe, but until then widespread surpluses will persist in Northern, Central, Eastern Europe, and European Russia and are expected to be exceptional in Russia, northern Poland, northwestern Ireland, and along the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Deficits will continue to emerge in Southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula, but will retreat significantly in France, persisting only along the southern coast. Intense deficits will emerge in Crimea, and will persist in northern Finland and northern Norway.

Europe: Water deficits to persist in the Mediterranean

Europe: Water deficits to persist in the Mediterranean

Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, but deficits of varying severity remain in the forecast for Finland, England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, and across the Mediterranean through the Balkans. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in western Russia and Poland, and surpluses are also forecast Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Belarus, Germany, Czech Republic (Czechia), Austria, northern United Kingdom, Ireland, and southern Norway. From February through April surpluses will begin to moderate somewhat and the extent of deficits will shrink.

Europe: Water deficits to persist in Europe through September

Europe: Water deficits to persist in Europe through September

Water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe through September but will diminish significantly thereafter. Through September, however, exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, Estonia, and many pockets of Western and Central Europe. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected along many rivers including the Danube, the Drava, the Rhine, the Rhône, and the Loire. Surpluses in Western Russia will persist through September but diminish in extent and severity except in Murmansk, where exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for eastern Romania and Moldova which will persist through December. 

Europe: Water deficits of varying intensity forecast for much of Europe

Europe: Water deficits of varying intensity forecast for much of Europe

In the near-term, Europe is forecast to experience generally moderate water deficits with more exceptional conditions affecting the Baltic States, Finland and southern Sweden. On the mainland the Benelux States as well as portions of Austria and Italy may experience more intense conditions. These are forecast to moderate steady through the mid-forecast period shifting to moderate surpluses across most of northern Europe in the December through February 2018 time frame. A pocket of exceptional surpluses in eastern Romania persists throughout the forecast, moderating slightly in early 2018.

Europe: Water deficits forecast for Europe

Europe: Water deficits forecast for Europe

Water deficits of varying severity are forecast to persist in western, northern, and Mediterranean nations of Europe, and to emerge eastward in the next three months. Surpluses are forecast to diminish in Eastern Europe and western European Russia, persist in eastern Romania and Moldova, and emerge in Murmansk (Russia) and northwestern Sweden. Except for Finland and Estonia, where deficits will remain exceptional, the forecast for August through October indicates an overall reduction in the extent and severity of deficits.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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